Anything is Possible

I'll try to remain hopeful that the SF Giants actually make some smart moves this off-season.  Sure we might see Zito back in the orange and black next year.  Yes, we might have Jimmy Rollins here as a sort of homecoming for him.  It's possible we could trade (likely way too much IMO) for Michael Cuddyer.

But I'm hopeful the Giants look at things a bit more creatively after this season.  The 'old ways' of aging veteran 'values' doesn't really work.  We need offense or we'll see our pitching staff gone.  I wouldn't blame them one bit, nor hold it against them.

Here, I'm posting some of my Excel spreadsheets.  Have a looksee over the contract estimates I'm using if you like.  Skip 'em if you don't.  If you're too lazy to drag your mouse and click to open the PDF's to view, I'm listing the major contract estimates below.


There's no real way of knowing how much players (like Bumgarner) will be worth in three more years' time.  He could produce numbers that overshadow Lincecum and Cain, they may not.  What type of arbitration numbers are prevalent in 2015?  Does anyone eclipse Fielder's record in arbitration?  Does a new catcher eclipse Mauer's and make all top-5 catchers more highly paid?

It's all fluid.  I get it.  I just plugged in numbers I think may work reasonably.  I also front-loaded a few contracts to ensure a 'payroll balance' over a longer term.  Will Kemp mind an earlier big payday?  I doubt it.  Will he mind when his salary dwindles by 2015?  Uh, yeah...  I'm sure.  But he'll also be a year or two away from a serious chunk of new cheddar in big, snazzy, fancy, bloated, shiny, new contract (if he continues to perform well).  I think it works.  As a recent example, A Rod has a slightly front-loaded contract.

Please remember, the first year of a contract (listed below) isn't necessarily 2012.  Some players still have arbitration years remaining.  Some of the first years (below) may also cut into those arb years.

• Aybar:  $64M/6  = 8.5, 9, 12, 12, 12, 10.5
• Kemp:  $92M/5  = 21, 27, 18, 14, 12
• Sandoval:  $82.5M/6  = 5, 18, 12, 12, 17.5, 18
• Posey:  $$45M/4  = 6, 8, 15, 16

• Lincecum:  $80M/4  = 19, 20, 20, 21
• Cain:  $97M/5  = 18, 19.5, 19.5 20, 20
• Bumgarner:  $54.175M/5  = 3.275, 5.5, 12, 15.4, 18
• Vogelsong:  $6.1M/2  = 2.5, 3.6
• Casilla:  $11.7M/4  = 2.4, 2.4, 3.1, 3.8
• Romo:  $15M/4  = 3, 3, 4, 5
• Lopez:  $11.8M/3  = 3.5, 4, 4.3

I realize it is rather pointless to project out 5 years.  Who knows what will be, or who plays well/poorly?  What happens to our young prospects?  I just get an idea of what is about as realistic as any scenario, in my eyes.

If you want the PDF's of my Excel docs.  Here ya go, feel free geek out and second-guess any of this.

The wickedest $135 million dollar team in Major League Baseball in 2012.

Hey all.  I keep looking at various scenarios for the Giants roster for 2012 and beyond.  The biggest obstacle I see is obviously payroll budget.  Consider that the Giants spent $38M to ‘build’ this 2011 team with new contract signings (Huff, Ross, Tejada, DeRosa, Fontenot, Burrell, etc) for a total 2011 payroll of $121 million.  If my projections are even remotely accurate, we’ll need to spend about $26M more on current player salaries rising (Lincecum, Cain, Sandoval, Romo, Schierholtz, etc).  Once Huff’s $10M salary for 2012 is also subtracted from the amount available, that leaves (38 – 25 - 10) $3M left.

We also need to account for the $34.5M we can trim from our payroll (Ross, Tejada, DeRosa, Wilson, etc).  It gets a bit complicated...  And yes, you read correctly that I'd trade Wilson- more on this below.  Let's revisit our 2012 budget.  I see our key players (including Rowand's contract) costing $95 million for 2012.  Add Barry Zito and we're at $114 million.

If the Giants stay around the 2011 payroll of $121M, you have $7M to get three starters (SS, CF, LF), one bench player, a fifth starter, one bullpen arm, and a closer to replace Wilson.

Ain’t gonna happen.  Not even a Rick Ankiel LF, Clint Barmes SS, and Coco Crisp CF/lead-off can happen for less than $15M combined.

Just FYI, MLB league minimum for 2012 I project will be right about $440,000.  If you used prospects at league minimum to fill all seven of these roles, that would cost $3.08 million.

Quite simply?  The payroll must go up in 2012.

This actually would be a perfect time to get a major player.

We could use a long-term corner outfielder, which either removes Belt or Schierholtz from our future plans.  Remember, we should expect Gary Brown in CF soon-ish.  That means a corner outfielder leaves only one outfield position still available.  I’d say Belt should have much higher trade value, so he’d be in a trade package IMO.

We could try for a major first baseman (I wrote about what our team would look like if we got Pujols), but we have to consider a possible log jam at first that we’ll run into.  First, Huff and possibly Pill for 2012, then what if Posey moves away from catching to first?  What if our top power prospect Ricky Oropesa (1B/3B)  is ready by 2014?  The more I look at these long term scenarios, the less I like the idea of Pujols or any other big first base acquisition.

Here’s my position outlook:

• 1B: We have Huff for 2012, love it or hate it.  We might be able to unload him if we pay some of his salary, but with his 2011 numbers, I’m not even sure we’ll find a taker anyways.  We could platoon Pill with Huff for 2012 and I’d be okay with that as long as Huff bats 6^th or 7^th.  Maybe Posey moves to first as Hector Sanchez, Tommy Joseph, or Andrew Susac solidfy their role as catcher in the next couple years.  We kinda have more first base options than we need.

• 2B: Obviously we all hope Freddy Sanchez can remain healthy through 2012.  Still, we’ll need a Freddy Contingency Plan (FCP), and I think Brandon Crawford, Ryan Cavan, or Charlie Culberson would do well.  They could double as an infield utility (UT) player.  Crawford is the only one of these three who hasn’t played 3B and had very limited time at 2B I think.  In mid/late 2012 or by 2013 I expect Joe Panik to take 2B for the long term in SF.

• SS:  We have Crawford, and he’s no lead-off hitter, he’d be an 8-hitter, and we don’t know if Bochy/Sabean would even give him a try as our starter.  IMHO, we don’t have another option in our system.  Both switch-hitters; Cavan might be, Ehire Adrianza just doesn’t ‘wow’ me with his performance in the minors.  I think our best acquisition would be an upgrade at shortstop.  That’s why I’m interested in Erick Aybar.

• 3B: Pablo Sandoval. Need I say more?  He isn’t going anywhere, except maybe to first base as he gets older, but I doubt he changes position for at least six years, or we get an unbelievable third baseman and have no first baseman on our team.  We could seriously off-load our third base prospects in trades (like Conor Gillaspie and maybe Chris Dominguez), they shouldn’t figure on playing time in SF.

• C: We have Posey, but how long will he remain our backstop?  Hector Sanchez is beginning to show well, Tommy Joseph is making noise in our system, and we haven’t even sniffed what our high draft pick Andrew Susac can do in pro ball.  If any other catcher shows the ability to contribute offensively at the major league level, expect Posey moving to first base rather soon-ish.

• LF: In our park, I consider left field to be a ‘power position’ about equivalent to third base, just a tad below the ‘power’ of a first baseman.  Is Brandon Belt that guy?  Can he really field well enough?  He seems a better first baseman than outfielder IMO.  We have Francisco Peguero who might be a nice LF, but perhaps not enough power to justify the short field/range requirements of this position.  Also, as long as he doesn’t take walks, his OBP will almost certainly be too low to justify a starting role.  Left field should be our second highest priority this off season.  We need a great hitter in LF who will help contribute from at least the fifth position in our lineup.

• CF: We have a one-year question mark here, as I expect Gary Brown to be fast-tracked and up by late 2012 and starting in center by 2013.  He’s got all the tools defensively, including an arm that might get outfield assists from deep in Triples Alley.  I expect he’ll be called up once he shows he can take a few more walks, since he’s being ‘programmed’ to be our future lead-off hitter.  Brown should be absolutely electric to watch on both sides of the ball, and a good chance he’ll be an absolute fan favorite (alongside Lincecum, Sandoval, and Posey).

• RF:  We have a great defensive right fielder in Nate Schierholtz, whose batting has come around enough to earn the starting role for 2012 IMHO.  But he’s been injured enough to also introduce doubts.  Maybe if Nate is our weakest offensive player, he’s a lock.  But if we try Crawford at SS or Belt in LF, we really can’t hold two on our starting roster IMO.  Our corner outfield positions are the two weakest spots power spots on our 2012 roster.  I’ve been a huge fan of Schierholtz, but in fairness, he might be out.

Some may think Coco Crisp would be a good CF/lead-off hitter, or Jimmy Rollins would be great as SS and lead-off.  In both instances, I say no.  I say that is only in the context of (or comparison to) what we’ve had here recently.  But, truthfully, we should be building a much stronger team than that and hold much higher expectations.  I’m not saying get Beltran for four years and $64M, or Jose Reyes for $120M and 6 years.  I’m saying we need a better balance of youth, speed, power, avg, OBP, OPS in healthy players.  With our elite pitchers, Sandoval, Posey, and the expectations for Brown and Panik; our standards should really be higher for our offensive upgrades decisions.

A major point I’m trying to communicate is that money should not be a hindrance.  We’ve got enough to get a key player.  We have nearly ‘perfect’ balance of young, talented prospects to keep a payroll budget moving forward.  We have several high prospects we could trade.  I’d challenge any Giants fan to consider any potential acquisitions with this benchmark in mind:

“If the powerhouses;  like the Yankees, Red Sox, or Phillies; were looking for an acquisition…  Would [this player] be up to their standards for value and performance?”  I think we should hold to no less a standard than any other baseball team.  We can absolutely be as competitive as ANY of them.

Do you seriously believe the Red Sox would target Coco Crisp if they needed a lead-off hitter and center fielder?  I think not.  Why should we?  It’s not fair to argue we don’t have their payroll, we also don’t have their payroll obligations.  We have a lot of team-controlled youth/talent.  Our spending power is tremendous.  The Yankees (for example) have very little spending power left, with the likes of Sabathia A-Rod, and Burnett.  And they’ll hit the Luxury Tax (yet again) and pay a huge additional percentage if they add much to their already bloated payroll.

So, here’s my new rationalization.  We have most positions locked up with great potential players from 2013 moving onward, except our corner outfield spots and shortstop.

Throw our whole farm system at the LA Dodgers and trade for Matt Kemp this off season.

Our team roster is pretty solid for 4-6 years, excepting a few bench players and several arms we’ll need.  You may ask, why not wait until 2013 when he’d be a free agent?  First, there are no certainties, he might re-sign with the Dodgers.  We’d be bidding against the rest of the baseball world.  He may get injured.  He might stay hot and fetch even more salary on the open market.  Lots of maybes.  Plus, it should be a crime to waste another year of this historic SF Giants pitching just to ‘hope’ we can get Kemp for 2013.  No way, why wait.

As I just reviewed, we should be fine giving up a handful of mid or high prospects, since they won’t see the majors unless they can steal a position away from the likes of Posey, Sandoval, Brown, Panik, etc.

Let’s say (for instance) we can send Brandon Belt, Ehire Adrianza, Conor Gillaspie, (maybe Nate Schierholtz?), and RHP Drew Bowlin to LAD for Matt Kemp.  Let’s say Kemp signs a $92M front-loaded 5-year contract with us (21, 27, 18, 14, 12),  in order to leave a second big paycheck ‘window’ available for himself when he is still 31 (like Pujols is now).  We could keep Brown in CF, and have a serious center fielder playing RF for us with Kemp’s range.  I’d love it.

I'd like this lineup to start in 2012:

1. SS  Erick Aybar
2. 2B  Freddy Sanchez
3. CF  Matt Kemp
4. 3B  Pablo Sandoval
5. C    Buster Posey
6. LF  Vernon Wells
7. 1B  Brett Pill
8. RF  Nate Schierholtz

Now, to fill out the rest of our lineup.  I still want Erick Aybar SS and Vernon Wells LF for Jonathan Sanchez, Barry Zito, and maybe a prospect or two.  (Please read my previous posts on this).  Again, I’d trade away most of the farm.  With only a few major exceptions (I’ll get to these).  The problem is, the Angels have a very deep farm system and a tight lineup already.  They’ll most certainly be looking for bullpen pitchers.  And we’ll need to keep some of ours for our roster.  Remember, they are getting a solid lefty starter and wiping out their bad contract in Wells, and they’re absolutely flush with shortstops already.

We could maintain a $135 million lineup from 2012-2106.

This lineup would start in 2013:

1. CF  Gary Brown
2. SS  Erick Aybar
3. RF  Matt Kemp
4. 3B  Pablo Sandoval
5. 1B  Buster Posey
6. LF  Vernon Wells
7. C    Tommy Joseph
8. 2B  Joe Panik

I don’t see a single weakness or question mark here in the above lineup.  No ‘doubts’ like “will Belt hit well enough, or “is Schierholtz able to keep his job,” or “will Crawford kill rallies, hitting eighth and making for two easy outs with the pitcher following,” or “how will Pill do over the course of an entire season.”

I see a legit offense.  A SERIOUS offense.

I still have a few concerns as I project the Giants’ 25-man roster through 2016.  I understand that there is no way of knowing whether Osiris Matos will be called up before Dan Otero, or whether we can start Justin Fitzgerald in our rotation for 2013.  Maybe Ryan Cavan plays so well he steals away the starting shortstop job from Aybar.  Who knows, right?  So, some projections (or assumptions, if you will) have to be made to fill out the team.  For example, I think Heath Hembree would need to be slotted as our closer from 2012 onward.  At least in 2012, we’ll have Casilla, Romo, and Lopez all on hand; if Hembree isn’t quite up to task yet.

Yes, I’d trade Brian Wilson this off season.  We could ‘ask’ for the specific pieces we’d need sooner or later.  Wilson is likely to make $10-15M in 2013 as an arb-4 eligible player, and we likely can’t write him a major, long-term contract with Kemp, Lincecum, Cain, Sandoval, Posey, etc…  Without easily crossing $150M per year.  Plus, let’s not worry about his arm and potential injuries.  He should still have considerable market value, top closers are one of the scarcest commodities in all of baseball.  He's also only 30 years old in 2012.

While I’m saying we could basically ‘trade the farm’ to get our team set up for a five-year window, we still need a few quality players to enhance our 40-man roster and account for any possible injury time to our starters.

Can Fitzgerald be our 5^th starter in 2012 and onward?  We’ll likely need another starting pitcher in 2014 if we only sign Vogelsong to a 2-year contract.  How about Craig Westcott or Ryan Verdugo?  We’ll need to hold onto at least two or three that could fill out our rotation.  Again, we also must be responsible in case there is a long-term injury to one of our starters (let’s absolutely hope this never happens!).

I see other holes we’ll need filled, like a few relief pitchers.  And our bench players.  I’d be pretty okay using (pretty much) the same five players all the way through until they become arbitration eligible, unless another prospect shows more promise at some future time.  I’d like both Culberson and Cavan as infield and utility players, and would like at least one of them to get some experience (this winter) playing LF in case of an emergency.  Huff would be our first base option in 2012 and I’d try to keep Pill for those duties after that.  Then, a decision of Hector Sanchez or Chris Stewart for catcher, and I think Sanchez wins out, as a switch-hitter and still learning.  Stewart, as solid as he is defensively, I think we pretty much know what we’ve got.  I think Hector has some untapped potential- or ‘hidden’ upside.

I’m not forgetting Tommy Joseph or Andrew Susac either.  I think it likely we could see Joseph starting in 2013 with Posey moving to first base, with Hector still the 2^nd catcher.  If Susac proves he develops into the catcher we should all hope for, either Joseph or Sanchez could potentially be traded for young prospects that will continue our long-term development.

Another sad realism is, eventually I think Lincecum would be traded.  By 2017 we’d be carrying a lot of high “teen” to twenty-million dollar salaries (Posey, Sandoval, Cain, Bumgarner, Hembree, etc).  But let's not worry that far ahead.  As a reminder of the realities, our bench players will also need to be moved and our bullpen would need to be entirely refreshed.  They’d all be making full market salaries by that point.  So, the trades replenish our positions and pen.  Let’s also consider the unimaginable, maybe one or two of our players really slump for a year or two, we’ll need to consider trade options- just in case.

As an example of how this succeeds, look at what the Astros got for Hunter Pence this trade deadline.  They got nearly half a team; and under team control and still not even close to arbitration (league minimum salaries for up to three years).

As an example of poor team management, look at how Carl Crawford was priced out of Tampa because they could no longer afford to pay him a full-market contract.  Look at how Colorado had to trade away Ubaldo Jimenez after signing the monstrous Tulowitski contract, and pricing themselves out of retaining a key pitcher.  Colorado can’t carry a massive payroll in a small media market.  Look at Seattle and how they are the worst team, yet they spend $100M per year.  We’ll need to balance this out by trading a key player or two.  It can be done.  And I believe we can have great continuity with our core team.

We can field a team from 2012 to 2016 that would be spectacular.  That is a five-year window.  And each year it would cost $135M by my estimates.  I am encouraged by my projections, I just hope the Giants brain trust doesn’t continue to acquire aged and over-priced veterans who may or may not be injured.

The players in my estimated 2013 lineup would still be quite young, here are their ages:

• Brown (23), Aybar (29), Kemp (28), Sandoval (27), Posey (26), Wells (34), Joseph (22), Panik (22).
• Culberson (24), Cavan (26), Pill (30), Peguero (25), H. Sanchez (23).
• Lincecum (29), Bumgarner (24), Cain (28), Vogelsong (36), Fitzgerald (27).
• Otero (28), Casilla (33), Matos (29), Romo (30), Runzler (27), Lopez (36), Hembree (24).

I believe this could be our SF Giants team in 2012.

$135M is what it would take.

Have some bake sales.  Hold an all-out yard sale.  Trade the farm.

It could happen.

Image credit: Matt Kemp from chacha.com

My final thoughts on Pujols as a SF Giant in 2012.

I’m trying to simplify all this.  I’m trying my best.  I think I’ve finally ‘polished’ my real payroll estimates.  I’ve now accounted for arbitration eligibility and league minimum salaries, and my ‘projected’ contracts for each specific player.

I might expect the Giants to try to stay around $125M payroll for 2012.  This is a problem.  I could see the following lineup costing $134M for the 2012 25-man roster total.  It would likely cost about $130-140M per season from 2013 to 2015 as current player salaries increase:

$134M for 2012:

Jimmy Rollins SS, Freddy Sanchez 2B, Pablo Sandoval 3B, Buster Posey C, Aubrey Huff 1B, Coco Crisp CF, Brandon Belt LF, Nate Schierholtz RF, pitcher P.  (Bench: Justin Christian OF, Ryan Cavan IF/UT, Brett Pill 1B/2B, Pat Burrell LF, Hector Sanchez C).

$130-140M for 2013-2015:

Gary Brown CF, Jimmy Rollins SS, Pablo Sandoval 3B, Buster Posey C, Brandon Belt LF, Brett Pill, Nate Schierholtz RF, Joe Panik 2B, pitcher P.

I can see this team as a big improvement on the Giants’ 2011 counterpart.  But what if Pablo and Buster have a tough game?  Can the 5-8 hitters carry an offense for some games?  Once a pitcher passes Sandoval, or maybe Posey, is there a real ‘threat’ (no pun intended to Brett) to start a rally and turn the lineup over?  I still see a team that likely averages below 4 runs per game in 2012.

---------------------------------

I expect this following lineup would cost $160M for 2012:

Erick Aybar SS, Freddy Sanchez 2B, Albert Pujols 1B, Pablo Sandoval 3B, Buster Posey C, Vernon Wells CF, Brandon Belt LF, Nate Schierholtz RF, pitcher P.  (Bench: Aubrey Huff 1B/OF, Francisco Peguero OF, Brett Pill 1B/2B, Ryan Cavan IF/UT, Hector Sanchez C).

And this lineup would cost $150M per year from 2013 to 2016.

Gary Brown CF, Erick Aybar SS, Albert Pujols 1B, Pablo Sandoval 3B, Buster Posey C, Brandon Belt LF, Vernon Wells RF, Joe Panik 2B, pitcher P.  (Bench: Francisco Peguero OF, Nate Schierholtz OF, Brett Pill 1B/2B, Ryan Cavan IF/UT, Hector Sanchez C).

To me, the differences are tremendous.  The depth of Posey batting 5^th and the threat of Pujols-Sandoval-Posey-Belt-Wells would be unbelievable IMHO.  I’m looking at this lineup like it could average at least 4.6 runs per game and be among the top-5 offenses in all of baseball- yes, even including AL teams.

Here’s how we get this lineup done.

• Anaheim trades Erick Aybar, Vernon Wells, and $21M cash to SF.
• SF trades Jonathan Sanchez, Barry Zito, and Brian Wilson to Anaheim.
• Anaheim trades Zito and $23M cash to Seattle for Chone Figgins to return to Anaheim.
• Anaheim trades or DFA’s Figgins and pays off his $17M contract obligation.

Assuming these transactions could be done, I’d say nobody loses.  Everybody wins.

You may laugh me off as simply a ‘hopeful Giants fan’…

• Anaheim saves $2M of the $63M Vernon Wells contract, and get a LHP starter (J. Sanchez), and RHP closer Brian Wilson.  I think they’d jump on a chance to get a quality lefty like Sanchez, a closer like Wilson, and get rid of Wells’ contract all in one fell swoop.  Do you know J. Sanchez’s ERA and performance compared to four Angels’ starters this season?  Are you familiar with their questions of their newly minted closer Jordan Walden?

• Seattle would’ve spent at least $17M on Figgins even though he isn’t playing.  Now, they have Zito’s $46M contract, minus $23M from Anaheim means a net salary cost of $25M.  Subtracting the $17M they would’ve paid Figgins, the Mariners are essentially paying $6M total to try out Zito for 2 years.  Have you looked at Seattle’s starting pitching rotation?  And a team payroll already high enough they can barely support one bad contract?  Chone Figgins isn’t even listed on their depth chart for any of the three positions he plays, yes I am serious.  Have you also recognized how poorly Seattle has drafted in recent years?  They will struggle financially, and this offers a new option on a bad contract.

• Our Giants have unloaded Zito, who is taking a roster spot, wasted payroll money, and likely not earning any playing time.  We turn that $46M contract into ‘productive’ money spent, with Vernon Wells at least able to make a contribution to our team- he might even hit 25 HR’s per year for us.  We also unload J. Sanchez who we probably couldn’t afford on our roster at $6-8M for 2012.  Oh yeah…  We get our 2012 lead-off hitter (until Brown is called up) and solid shortstop for years to come; all in Erick Aybar.

The main factor is getting ANY kind of productivity from (dead) payroll/contracts.  And front-loading contracts.  Sure, it is insane and Pujols would set a record for one-year salary on his first ($46M) and second year ($40M) of his 7-year deal.  But it works so perfectly.  I think it absolutely helps persuade Pujols to come to SF.  I mean, if you won the Lottery, would you chose the lump sum or the annual payments?  See?  Everyone wants the most money right now.  I think Albert might too.

Plus, as Bumgarner and Sandoval and Posey all begin earning $14-18M salaries, by that point we are paying Sir Albert $24M to $15M per season.  It works, we can keep a $150M payroll balanced and Pujols is still batting third.  If we don't front-load his deal, we'd have too many stacked up eight-figure salaries on top of each other by 2014, 2015, and 2016.  I mean way too many.  Maybe above Luxury Tax threshold too many.

I’m using the following salary estimates to figure my 2012-2016 payrolls:

• Aybar: $62.5M/6-years = 7.5, 9, 12, 12, 12, 10
• Pujols: $185M/7-years = 46, 40, 28, 24, 16, 16, 15
• Sandoval: $82.5M/6-years = 5, 18, 12, 12, 17.5, 18
• Posey: $45M/4-years = 6, 8, 15, 16
• Lincecum: $81M/4-years = 19, 20, 21, 21
• Cain: $117M/6-years = 18, 19.5, 19.5, 20, 20, 20
• Bumgarner: $54.4M/5-years = 3, 6, 12, 15.4, 18
• Vogelsong: $6.1M/2-years = 2.5, 3.6
• Casilla: $12M/4-years = 2.4, 2.4, 3.4, 3.8
• Romo: $15M/4-years = 3, 3, 4, 5
• Lopez: $11.8M/3-years = 3.5, 4, 4.3

Again, I say…  Everybody wins.  Can we please get this done?

Albert Pujols coming to the SF Giants!

Okay, so tell me.  Make it simple.  How do you fit Albert Pujols onto a MLB payroll that stays under $150M each year?  Yup, it’s simple.  We’ll assume these things below can all happen, sure there are lots of unknown variables; it might not work quite this way, I get that.

First off, I hope y’all read my previous post about how much I want Erick Aybar as our SF Giants lead-off hitter.  If you haven’t?  Please do so before you read this post, otherwise, these contents won’t make much sense to you.  I swear.

I don’t mean to sound arrogant here, but I feel as though I just invented electricity.  Yeah, seriously.  Or maybe, on a more realistic comparison, sliced bread.  Or Tang.  Yeah, Tang- that’s it.  It’s orange.  It’s delicious.  It’s nutritious.  That’s how I feel right now...  Like I just invented Tang.  Why?

I think I figured out a way to not only get Albert Pujols signed here in San Francisco, but to maintain a budget under $150M annually for at least 5 years.  And a way that I believe he would accept the offer- no matter how many bidders we are competing against.  Did I mention that I believe WE can actually set the terms?  Not Pujols.  Nor his agent, Dan Lozano.  Sure, call me presumptuous, but first please hear me out.

But how do you sign Pujols as a Giant?  Talk truths:

• We are in the weakest division, he'd no longer face 5 other teams to get to the playoffs.
• LA is bankrupt and likely will be rebuilding.
• San Diego can’t carry payroll and is rebuilding.
• Arizona is hot this year, but will likely not be able to afford a sustained run.
• Colorado is struggling beyond any expectations.
• We have elite pitching.
• We can honestly make the playoffs each year.
• How would you like our chances with this team?  Against anybody.  Everybody.
• You will set a new record for a one-year player salary at $40-million on a front-loaded contract.
• You will receive $76-million total in the first two years.  $104-million total in the first three years.  This will  also help the Giants remain agile, as other players’ salaries rise.
• Large payroll obligations will come off the books each year through 2015, to ensure a consistently top-notch team each and every year- without fear of budget constraints.
• Yes, I am serious, and no, I will not share the "Tang" I’m drinking with you.

Here’s how it works.  We make sure to get Erick Aybar and Vernon Wells from Anaheim for Barry Zito, Jonathan Sanchez, and a b-prospect or two or three.  Anaheim adds $20-million to offset the $17M payroll difference, and to compensate for J. Sanchez (as a quality lefty starter being of higher value in the trade).

This $20M helps to immediately offset Rowand’s 2012 salary and Pujols’ $40M first year of his $185M, 7-year contract ($40M, $36M, $28M, $24M, $21M, $19M, $17M).  We still have many young players well below market values:  Aybar, Bumgarner, Romo, Posey, Sandoval, Belt, Pill, Crawford, and H. Sanchez most specifically.

So, we want to alleviate future payroll as it will undoubtedly rise, as player salaries reach towards their market values.  One major objective is to constantly remain well below the Luxury Tax line (about $175M, I think).  Actually, it will be simple to maintain a $145M payroll each year.  Sure, we have new players (like Gary Brown, Joe Panik, Otero, Hembree, and others) getting called up.  But, even six new league minimum contracts can’t offset even ONE jump in salary from $2M to $8M.  Not to mention four or five salaries that stagger up in the same time period.

So, front-loading?  We pay Pujols a significant portion of his contract the first year ($40M).  We can ensure we remain at $145-million for a long time-horizon.  Remember, Zito's salary ($46M) is exchanged for Wells’ salary ($61M).  Freddy Sanchez, Rowand and Huff are off book after 2012 ($29.6M).  Vogelsong and Wilson (who likely will fetch $12.5-15M per year in 2014) can be off book after 2013 (about $14M).  Vernon Wells is off book after 2014 ($21M).

Clearing this salary each year helps replenish the salaries of other players without adding payroll.  And Pujols’ salary will decline significantly each year to help further.  Essentially, you pay against future money coming off and allow consistent payroll balance.

2012 SF Giants Lineup:

SS  Erick Aybar

2B  Freddy Sanchez

1B  Albert Pujols

3B  Pablo Sandoval

C   Buster Posey

LF  Vernon Wells

RF  Brandon Belt

CF  Coco Crisp

Bench:

Huff

Schierholtz

Pill

Crawford

H. Sanchez

You can check out the numbers yourself.  Just my humble projections.  I ain't saying I'm a soothsayer.  Some estimates will surely be off a bit.  Your opinions of which prospect players make the roster may vary.

Image credit:  Pujols image from mikespickz.com

9/20 Lincecum vs. Kershaw Showdown Tonight

Oh man.  Here’s the lineup for tonight’s Lincecum vs. Kershaw matchup:

CF  Torres

2B  Keppinger

RF  Beltran

3B  DeRosa

1B  Pill

SS  Cabrera

LF Christian

C   Stewart

P   Lincecum

This does not look good, Giants fans.  Lincecum already doesn’t get enough run support.  In recent times, Torres isn’t comfortable- and has been especially ineffective from the right side.  Keppinger doesn’t seem to be seeing the ball as well the last week or two.  Beltran is effectively ‘isolated’ in the lineup without Pablo, and DeRosa behind him.  Could I imagine the LAD putting Beltran on first twice with IBB's?  Yes, I could.  Pill is also not protected in the lineup with Cabrera (who doesn’t hit for power) behind him.  Christian hasn’t shown enough production at the MLB level, Stewart is not playing due to his offense, and Lincecum is not a exactly an offensive threat at the plate.

I hope Torres can find a way to get on base.  He’s the only Giant that scores nearly 50% of the time he gets on base.  Since 2009, he hovers around scoring 45% of the time he’s on.  No other Giant is even close.  He might not be a ‘hot hitter’ like the 2010 Torres, but he makes a big difference if/when he gets on.  That’s for dang sure.  And that can definitely start rallies.  We all know hitting is contagious with our Giants (if you don’t, please consult your doctor).

I see a lot of quick one-two-three innings for the Giants hitters.  Or maybe sprinkle in one runner stranded on first (a walk, a bloop single, etc) for a couple innings.  Yeah, not good.

Conversely, the Dodgers.  It’s really not even about them.  It’s about our lineup- well, our defense.  My first reaction to seeing this Giants lineup was “three doubles against us”.  A couple lefty hitters (Loney and Ethier, for example) going down the third-base line, can DeRo be expected to range and pick ‘em on the hot corner?  We’d better hope so.  Some right-handed bats like Kemp, Barajas, and Rivera…  Can Beltran actually run some good angles in RF and keep a batter to a single?  We’d better hope so.  Or can we have solid defense on a gap shot between the outfielders?  We’d better hope so.

I can see a scenario where Lincecum is going to have to be nails.  Two situations where he’ll need to get out of a ‘runner on third, less than two out”.  Maybe Gordon takes a walk and steals second, gets hit over to third.  Maybe those dang doubles I envision being hit off Lincecum.  To counter all this, Lincecum would need his best stuff.  I’m looking for 11 or more strikeouts today.  And yes, that also means he needs to get to at least six-and-two-thirds innings.

This may be the biggest game left on the schedule for our G-Men.  Any who ask how I could say the head-to-head games with AZ aren’t more meaningful?  Well…  They really are only meaningful if we sweep the Dodgers first.  And if somehow we can find a way to get this game against Kewshaw, I think that feeling of ‘invincibility’ we seemed to carry after beating ATL in the NLDS could come back to us.  And I hope that can all happen- starting tonight.

The amount of pressure both pitchers are facing tonight are tremendous.  Kershaw wants to solidify his spot as a top candidate for the 2011 NL Cy Young.  Don’t think for a second that ain’t nothing to a pitcher.  Lincecum is pitching for our virtual last gasp at reaching the post-season this year.

Can we maintain the offensive level we’ve carried into and through Colorado?  I don’t know.  I think it is a mental grind when you’re backed up against a wall for that long a stretch.  I know these two rivals both want to shove the game into the others’ proverbial faces.  But…  I also think one ace pitcher will crack tonight.

So, who?  That’s way beyond my ability to ‘predict’.  Odds don’t favor this Giants lineup as getting the ‘tilt’ in their favor.  But who knows?  Maybe Bochy will actually make good bench moves in favorable situations tonight.  Maybe.

My feeling is that this will NOT be a pitchers’ duel late into the game.

One team will have 3 runs scored against them by the fourth inning or 4 runs scored against them by the fifth inning.  Those dang doubles worry me.  Maybe a ball tipping off the glove of Cabrera and getting Miles a double…  Whatever.  Just my big concern of this game: don’t give up the doubles tonight.

So?  I’m not really taking a stance on the score or who wins.  I can’t “see it” tonight.  While I’ve been posting on Extra Baggs, I’ve pretty much nailed my predictions the last four straight games.  Yes, including scoring four runs in the first four innings on Harang, Pill’s bases-clearing triple, Fontenot getting hit-by-a-pitch, Cain’s home run, Bumgarner shutting down the Rox offense, the bottom of the order winning a game, Pablo and Carlos carrying the offense the next game.  This ain’t just ‘guesses’ at scores or spreads.  I’ve been talking specifics.  And today’s game?  No doubles for L.A.!

Let’s Go Giants!  BEAT L.A.!

Image credit: This image of Andres Torres is my own.  All Rights Reserved.

Get Erick Aybar to SF!

Erick Aybar: ALDS Game 2

It's been a long time...

I've been interested in Erick Aybar for a long while now.  And I still want Aybar in the Orange & Black. I was the first to bring him up on Andrew Baggarly’s blog, Extra Baggs and on KNBR with Marty Lurie.  I believe he should be our #1 target acquisition this off-season.  I see more and more ways of doing this, how does this look to you?

SF Giants trade:

LHP Barry Zito ($39M + $7M buyout = $46M over 2-years)

LHP Jonathan Sanchez

3B  Conor Gillaspie

Since the Angels cut Scott Kazmir, they have no starting LHP in their rotation.  They also have virtually all RHP starter prospects in their farm system.  Zito could be a LOOGY (Lefty-One-Out-Guy) or long relief.  I imagine a rotation of: Weaver, Haren, Santana, Sanchez, Pinero/Chatwood should easily outperform  the rest of the AL West.  J. Sanchez even has a better 2011 ERA (4.26) than 3 of their starters used this year (Pinero 5.33, Chatwood 4.59, and Richards 8.22).  I won’t even be cruel and include Kazmir’s 1.2 inning 2011 season ERA of 27.00

The Angels had to make a splash after missing out on: Cliff Lee, Adrian Beltre and Carl Crawford, and they’ll be feeling this error for three more years (and $63M) if they can’t move him.  Why?  They will have premier rookie Mike Trout in LF, Peter Bourjos in CF, and Torii Hunter in RF.  That is an incredible outfield, I’d say a top-5 in all of baseball for 2012.  They’re effectively eating $21M/year unless an OF is injured.

Anaheim Angels trade:

SS Erick Aybar

LF Vernon Wells ($63M over 3-years)

+ $24M cash consideration to offset payroll

Aybar, I see tons of upside: speed, power, avg, OBP, OPS.  He’s also young, healthy, well below market value, solid or plus defense, a plus arm, and I absolutely believe he will grow into a premier shortstop in another year or two.  Maybe he can't have the Coors Field-inflated power numbers of Tulowitski, but he certainly could be in the same discussions as Hanley Ramirez and Jose Reyes for years to come.  I believe he could hit 35-40 2B, 10 3B, and 15 HR as a Giant and steal 30+ bases per season.  A lead-off and SS are two of the three major holes we’ll need to fill this off-season (other being CF).

Aybar isn’t even close to their only SS option in Anaheim.  Some thought Brandon Wood would win the job beginning 2011, he was (curiously) released and picked up by PIT.  They have Maicer Izturis ready right now to play SS (who plays a bit at 3B), their #2 prospect is SS Jean Segura who Scioscia wants to remain at  SS (not convert to 2B).  They even have another excellent SS prospect in switch-hitter Andrew Romine.

Left field we can have Wells and Belt platoon.  Huff and Pill platoon 1B.  After Huff is gone (in 2013) Belt and Pill could platoon if Belt doesn’t earn the job outright.  Schierholtz in RF.  Justin Christian or another (Tyler Graham or Francisco Peguero) take CF until Brown is ready, maybe mid or late 2012?

Aybar can also remain in our lineup long-term.  I don't see any other position player we might acquire have staying power into the future plans of our Gigantes.  Maybe by 2013 Joe Panik is 2B, Gary Brown in CF.  By 2013, if Brown leads-off, Aybar easily fits into the 2-hole vacated by Freddy Sanchez… Perfect!  Maybe by 2014, Posey is at 1B and Tommy Joseph (or Susac) is catching with Hector Sanchez the 2^nd catcher.  Shortstop is the only position we could acquire a lead-off/#2 hitter and keep them in our long-term road map.  Not LF, not CF, nor anywhere else- unless Nate Schierholtz is basically released from RF.

I realize Wells isn’t Carlos Beltran or Michael Cuddyer or even Nick Swisher.  But if Belt, Huff, Pill, and Schierholtz have any sort of offensive numbers our lineup would look very strong.  Especially if right-handed Wells can add some much needed pop to our lineup.

We get production from Zito’s contract money (in Wells at LF), we likely can move Eric Surkamp or Justin Fitzgerald into the #5 starter role for 2012.  We trim the $6M-ish of J. Sanchez for 2012.  We get our starting SS of the future and lead-off hitter!  And we get a serious bat to deepen our lineup.  Sure, I get that Vernon Wells is slumping in 2011.  I'll take my chances with a right-handed bat that just might run into 30 home runs a year versus Zito sitting on a paycheck for two more years. That's my take on it, and I'm sticking to it.

Some of  the naysayers will naysay: "Nobody would want Zito, he's untradeable."  I beg to differ.  Consider that Vernon Wells had one of the most "untradeable" contracts in MLB and yet, the stealthy Blue Jays head honcho Alex Anthopoulos got it done.  How did he also get Napoli in that deal and keep him away from the Rays?  Seriously, how did he get Jose Bautista to sign for around $16.5M per?   He was also around when the Jays unloaded Alex Rios.  Is  A.A. up in the T-Dot a hypnotist or something?  Scary.

We have an incredibly high standard for pitchers here in San Francisco, as well we should.  Perrenially, we have just about the best pitching in baseball.  Not just starters, but bullpen, and closer too.  We might easily forget that most teams in baseball consider a 3.50 ERA "fantastic" and a #4 or #5 starter's ERA of 4.50 ERA to be "great".  Here with Lincecum, Cain, Bumgarner, and this year with Vogelsong, we say "phooey" to all that.

Here I give you, Seattle fans are asking for Zito in exchange for Chone Figgins.  They aren't contenders, you naysay?  Here, I give you exhibit 1B: maybe the Angels might actually WANT Zito.  If you can convince me they aren't contenders, come back and we'll talk further.

But wouldn't the Angels want to keep Aybar?  Don't the fans like his fantastic play and his team value?  It appears that even at the start of this season, there was little to no confidence in Aybar from Angels insiders.  They need a fifth starter, a lefty would serve them perfectly.  IMHO, J. Sanchez would be a perfect fit for Scioscia's leadership.  They are dumping money like it's going into an Orange County landfill with Vernon Wells.  They got depth like a scuba diver at shortstop.  It just works.

Why can we add Gillaspie to the trade?  He’ll have no place for us on the Giants.  Recognized as a below-average defenseman, if Sandoval ever moves to first, I’d bet Posey shifts to 3B.  If that doesn’t happen, Chris Dominguez is making a strong case he’d be in the wings waiting next in line.  The Angels appear thinner at 3B than other positions, with their prospects too.  They could look at Conor and maybe he’ll have a better chance at playing time.  It just works.

Heck, there MIGHT even be another factor in this trade.  If the large salary of Vernon Wells is shifted into something “productive” for the Halos (like a LHP starting pitcher), maybe, just maybe, the Angels become a top contender for Carlos Beltran as their DH and try to move the slipping Bobby Abreu (.254 avg, .720 OPS, 30 2B, 1 3B, 7 HR, 55 RBI in 562 PA this 2011 season) who has already vested his 2012 option.  Maybe they can ‘afford’ to pay him off, or trade him with a chunk of ‘cash consideration’ to offset his $9M 2012 salary.  Not sure they’d be willing to jump up in payroll enough, but they are looking like serious AL contenders from 2012 moving forward, so it could be possible.

Does anybody lose in this trade?  Methinks not.  I'm just sayin'...

_______________________

Look, please don't get me started on another topic...  If we don't sign solid offense this off-season, we're going to lose our elite pitching staff rather quickly-like.  Yes, I know Lincecum's contract status, and I know that if he were to leave in a year or two (long story; but traded or walked...); I believe Anaheim would be his destination.  You read me right, not the NY Yankees, not the Boston Red Sox, and not  the Seattle Mariners.

You want to see an AL powerhouse to contend year after year with the 'Evil Empire' that is the Yankees?  Enter: Lincecum, Weaver, Haren, J. Sanchez, Chatwood/Santana.  Add Trout, Bourjos, Hunter, Kendrick, Trumbo, Kendry Morales, and Conger as serious bats. With a wicked DH like Beltran?  Oh dear, oh jebesus me.  Yeah, the Angels would pay-at-all-costs if Lincecum hit the market.  And, I think they'd get him.

Maybe the Angels would need a closer to really be a powerhouse; if young, hard-throwing (he's hit 102 mph) Jordan Walden doesn't continue to improve?  Oh, again, think of the Giants as Angels Farm North.  I think Brian Wilson will become available when his salary skies over $12.5M/year in a couple years, and Sergio Romo or Heath Hembree could take over.

Sincere thanks for your visit here.  Cheers.

Image credit: Erick Aybar from ALDS Game 2, 2010 from Boston.com.