Albert Pujols coming to the SF Giants!

Okay, so tell me.  Make it simple.  How do you fit Albert Pujols onto a MLB payroll that stays under $150M each year?  Yup, it’s simple.  We’ll assume these things below can all happen, sure there are lots of unknown variables; it might not work quite this way, I get that.

First off, I hope y’all read my previous post about how much I want Erick Aybar as our SF Giants lead-off hitter.  If you haven’t?  Please do so before you read this post, otherwise, these contents won’t make much sense to you.  I swear.

I don’t mean to sound arrogant here, but I feel as though I just invented electricity.  Yeah, seriously.  Or maybe, on a more realistic comparison, sliced bread.  Or Tang.  Yeah, Tang- that’s it.  It’s orange.  It’s delicious.  It’s nutritious.  That’s how I feel right now...  Like I just invented Tang.  Why?

I think I figured out a way to not only get Albert Pujols signed here in San Francisco, but to maintain a budget under $150M annually for at least 5 years.  And a way that I believe he would accept the offer- no matter how many bidders we are competing against.  Did I mention that I believe WE can actually set the terms?  Not Pujols.  Nor his agent, Dan Lozano.  Sure, call me presumptuous, but first please hear me out.

But how do you sign Pujols as a Giant?  Talk truths:

• We are in the weakest division, he'd no longer face 5 other teams to get to the playoffs.
• LA is bankrupt and likely will be rebuilding.
• San Diego can’t carry payroll and is rebuilding.
• Arizona is hot this year, but will likely not be able to afford a sustained run.
• Colorado is struggling beyond any expectations.
• We have elite pitching.
• We can honestly make the playoffs each year.
• How would you like our chances with this team?  Against anybody.  Everybody.
• You will set a new record for a one-year player salary at $40-million on a front-loaded contract.
• You will receive $76-million total in the first two years.  $104-million total in the first three years.  This will  also help the Giants remain agile, as other players’ salaries rise.
• Large payroll obligations will come off the books each year through 2015, to ensure a consistently top-notch team each and every year- without fear of budget constraints.
• Yes, I am serious, and no, I will not share the "Tang" I’m drinking with you.

Here’s how it works.  We make sure to get Erick Aybar and Vernon Wells from Anaheim for Barry Zito, Jonathan Sanchez, and a b-prospect or two or three.  Anaheim adds $20-million to offset the $17M payroll difference, and to compensate for J. Sanchez (as a quality lefty starter being of higher value in the trade).

This $20M helps to immediately offset Rowand’s 2012 salary and Pujols’ $40M first year of his $185M, 7-year contract ($40M, $36M, $28M, $24M, $21M, $19M, $17M).  We still have many young players well below market values:  Aybar, Bumgarner, Romo, Posey, Sandoval, Belt, Pill, Crawford, and H. Sanchez most specifically.

So, we want to alleviate future payroll as it will undoubtedly rise, as player salaries reach towards their market values.  One major objective is to constantly remain well below the Luxury Tax line (about $175M, I think).  Actually, it will be simple to maintain a $145M payroll each year.  Sure, we have new players (like Gary Brown, Joe Panik, Otero, Hembree, and others) getting called up.  But, even six new league minimum contracts can’t offset even ONE jump in salary from $2M to $8M.  Not to mention four or five salaries that stagger up in the same time period.

So, front-loading?  We pay Pujols a significant portion of his contract the first year ($40M).  We can ensure we remain at $145-million for a long time-horizon.  Remember, Zito's salary ($46M) is exchanged for Wells’ salary ($61M).  Freddy Sanchez, Rowand and Huff are off book after 2012 ($29.6M).  Vogelsong and Wilson (who likely will fetch $12.5-15M per year in 2014) can be off book after 2013 (about $14M).  Vernon Wells is off book after 2014 ($21M).

Clearing this salary each year helps replenish the salaries of other players without adding payroll.  And Pujols’ salary will decline significantly each year to help further.  Essentially, you pay against future money coming off and allow consistent payroll balance.

2012 SF Giants Lineup:

SS  Erick Aybar

2B  Freddy Sanchez

1B  Albert Pujols

3B  Pablo Sandoval

C   Buster Posey

LF  Vernon Wells

RF  Brandon Belt

CF  Coco Crisp

Bench:

Huff

Schierholtz

Pill

Crawford

H. Sanchez

You can check out the numbers yourself.  Just my humble projections.  I ain't saying I'm a soothsayer.  Some estimates will surely be off a bit.  Your opinions of which prospect players make the roster may vary.

Image credit:  Pujols image from mikespickz.com

9/20 Lincecum vs. Kershaw Showdown Tonight

Oh man.  Here’s the lineup for tonight’s Lincecum vs. Kershaw matchup:

CF  Torres

2B  Keppinger

RF  Beltran

3B  DeRosa

1B  Pill

SS  Cabrera

LF Christian

C   Stewart

P   Lincecum

This does not look good, Giants fans.  Lincecum already doesn’t get enough run support.  In recent times, Torres isn’t comfortable- and has been especially ineffective from the right side.  Keppinger doesn’t seem to be seeing the ball as well the last week or two.  Beltran is effectively ‘isolated’ in the lineup without Pablo, and DeRosa behind him.  Could I imagine the LAD putting Beltran on first twice with IBB's?  Yes, I could.  Pill is also not protected in the lineup with Cabrera (who doesn’t hit for power) behind him.  Christian hasn’t shown enough production at the MLB level, Stewart is not playing due to his offense, and Lincecum is not a exactly an offensive threat at the plate.

I hope Torres can find a way to get on base.  He’s the only Giant that scores nearly 50% of the time he gets on base.  Since 2009, he hovers around scoring 45% of the time he’s on.  No other Giant is even close.  He might not be a ‘hot hitter’ like the 2010 Torres, but he makes a big difference if/when he gets on.  That’s for dang sure.  And that can definitely start rallies.  We all know hitting is contagious with our Giants (if you don’t, please consult your doctor).

I see a lot of quick one-two-three innings for the Giants hitters.  Or maybe sprinkle in one runner stranded on first (a walk, a bloop single, etc) for a couple innings.  Yeah, not good.

Conversely, the Dodgers.  It’s really not even about them.  It’s about our lineup- well, our defense.  My first reaction to seeing this Giants lineup was “three doubles against us”.  A couple lefty hitters (Loney and Ethier, for example) going down the third-base line, can DeRo be expected to range and pick ‘em on the hot corner?  We’d better hope so.  Some right-handed bats like Kemp, Barajas, and Rivera…  Can Beltran actually run some good angles in RF and keep a batter to a single?  We’d better hope so.  Or can we have solid defense on a gap shot between the outfielders?  We’d better hope so.

I can see a scenario where Lincecum is going to have to be nails.  Two situations where he’ll need to get out of a ‘runner on third, less than two out”.  Maybe Gordon takes a walk and steals second, gets hit over to third.  Maybe those dang doubles I envision being hit off Lincecum.  To counter all this, Lincecum would need his best stuff.  I’m looking for 11 or more strikeouts today.  And yes, that also means he needs to get to at least six-and-two-thirds innings.

This may be the biggest game left on the schedule for our G-Men.  Any who ask how I could say the head-to-head games with AZ aren’t more meaningful?  Well…  They really are only meaningful if we sweep the Dodgers first.  And if somehow we can find a way to get this game against Kewshaw, I think that feeling of ‘invincibility’ we seemed to carry after beating ATL in the NLDS could come back to us.  And I hope that can all happen- starting tonight.

The amount of pressure both pitchers are facing tonight are tremendous.  Kershaw wants to solidify his spot as a top candidate for the 2011 NL Cy Young.  Don’t think for a second that ain’t nothing to a pitcher.  Lincecum is pitching for our virtual last gasp at reaching the post-season this year.

Can we maintain the offensive level we’ve carried into and through Colorado?  I don’t know.  I think it is a mental grind when you’re backed up against a wall for that long a stretch.  I know these two rivals both want to shove the game into the others’ proverbial faces.  But…  I also think one ace pitcher will crack tonight.

So, who?  That’s way beyond my ability to ‘predict’.  Odds don’t favor this Giants lineup as getting the ‘tilt’ in their favor.  But who knows?  Maybe Bochy will actually make good bench moves in favorable situations tonight.  Maybe.

My feeling is that this will NOT be a pitchers’ duel late into the game.

One team will have 3 runs scored against them by the fourth inning or 4 runs scored against them by the fifth inning.  Those dang doubles worry me.  Maybe a ball tipping off the glove of Cabrera and getting Miles a double…  Whatever.  Just my big concern of this game: don’t give up the doubles tonight.

So?  I’m not really taking a stance on the score or who wins.  I can’t “see it” tonight.  While I’ve been posting on Extra Baggs, I’ve pretty much nailed my predictions the last four straight games.  Yes, including scoring four runs in the first four innings on Harang, Pill’s bases-clearing triple, Fontenot getting hit-by-a-pitch, Cain’s home run, Bumgarner shutting down the Rox offense, the bottom of the order winning a game, Pablo and Carlos carrying the offense the next game.  This ain’t just ‘guesses’ at scores or spreads.  I’ve been talking specifics.  And today’s game?  No doubles for L.A.!

Let’s Go Giants!  BEAT L.A.!

Image credit: This image of Andres Torres is my own.  All Rights Reserved.

SF Giants 2010 Season

Okay, so here's where I think the Giants should stand after the 162 game season comes to an end:
98 wins - 64 losses.

Obviously, it might be easier to handle some of my pre-season predictions now that we've already played 20 games so far, but here they are anyways.  And there are some peeps out there that heard me say these things over a month ago.  They know who they are, and I'm not just now jumping on these bandwagons.

First off, just how good is Tim Lincecum?  Well, midway through last season I did some research and put together some stats.  Then, I updated them at the end of last season.  I was interested to learn how Lincecum stacked up against some of the pitching legends in MLB baseball.  So, I went and found out for myself.

These are stats from the first three seasons of some of the very best pitchers in MLB history.  Sure, complete games and innings pitched are different today than in earlier times when there was only a four-man rotation and there wasn't really such a thing as a pitch count.  The red are "best in category" or years where they won the Cy Young Award.  Click on the image to view a larger image size.

But I think Tim's numbers speak volumes about the potential of what may still lie ahead for this right-hander.  And yes, I believe he is still getting better.  If he gets a good snap throw to first, learns to make sure to hold runners on base better.  If he starts getting great control back over the curveball he had thrown successfully through his UW college days.  And his walk total is still going down each year.

Lincecum usually works pretty fast too.  I mean, if you ever go to a game that he's pitching, you could almost double-park your car outside.  It doesn't seem unusual for his games to finish in 2:15 to 2:25.  Maybe there is room to still add some subtleties in as well, like changing his tempo to disturb the rhythm of the hitters.  Quick pitching or delaying on the mound to make the batters more anxious.  I think he's unbelievable and these little nuances aren't going unnoticed by the best this game has to offer.

So, why do I think the Giants can win 98 games this year?  Well, pitching.  Not just starting rotation- but the bullpen too.  Clearly I think the Giants made great strides in the off-season to trim their staff to be better.  Howry was likely the largest liability last year, with Miller and Valdez being less notable compared to Affeldt, Romo, and Wilson.  Now, Runzler has earned a true place, I think Mota is a fantastic addition for a low salary... And I truly believe Romo will be a premier closer in two- or less than three years' time.

I only recently learned that Romo was brought up through the minors as a closer.  But he's got the stuff to be unbelievable, and I also think he thrives on big time situations.  I am really impressed by Sergio Romo, and am curious to see what his younger brother, Andrew Romo, can bring to the Giants in the future.  It is my hope Sergio Romo can stay with the Giants for many years to come.

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Okay, back to my season predictions.  I think it is pretty easy to say the Giants can win the NL West.  I don't think the Dodgers have enough pitching.  And last year Ethier had a career-type year.  Will he and Kemp be able to continue that pace?  I don't think so.  And their pitching hasn't been able to hold up anyways.  Now, with Manny in and out of the lineup and the runs against they've been posting... It might be easier to see why I don't see the Dodgers as very competitive.  Heck, I think they might be third in our division.

Sure Arizona might be putting up some big scores, but honestly... I don't see them being all that competitive by the time the season comes to a close.  I would be surprised if they win more than 75 games this season.  Yup, seriously.

So, then you might guess I have the Colorado Rockies as coming in second to the SF Giants?  Nope.  Going against all logic, I was talking about the Padres before the season even started.  I think they might be sneaky this year, I said.  No, they aren't supposed to be very good.  No, their pitching isn't really that solid.  On paper.  But I think Adrian Gonzalez is the centerpiece of a pretty solid offensive lineup.

And oh yeah, let me start with my "strength of schedule" discussion now.  I don't really hear any analysts talk about strength of schedule in baseball.  I guess with a 162 game season, it seems less relevant.  But that's just not true.  Here's how I've rated the strength of schedule in the NL West division (based solely on my fairly uninformed opinions of how 'competitive' I think teams will be for this entire season).

Arizona Diamondbacks have a +/- of ZERO games.
Colorado Rockies have a +2 game advantage in schedule.
San Francisco Giants have a +7 game advantage in schedule.
San Diego Padres have a +9 game advantage in schedule.
Los Angeles Dodgers have a -8.5 game disadvantage in schedule.

Okay, but what does this mean?  How about a "for example"?

The Giants play the Astros 9 games
the Dodgers play the Astros 6 games, the Twins 2 extra games and the Cardinals 1 extra game.
I'd say that is favorable to the Giants, right?

The Giants play the Orioles for a 3-game series
the Dodgers instead will face the Yankees for a 3-game series.

Here's the bottom line about strength of schedule.  I just don't see the Dodgers being able to survive the month of June too easily (specifically the 25 games from June 3rd onward).  Unless they have at least an 8-game lead in the West by June 2nd...  And for that to happen within the next six weeks, well simple mathmatics will explain to you how unlikely that is (from the current standings).

All in all, I think the strength of schedule is yet another contributing factor to the makings of what could be a very special season for the SF Giants.  Add in the pitching (I'll talk more about how I think Zito will have 16-18 wins this year, and the 5th starter position will likely have 10 or 11 wins).  An even stronger bullpen than last year.  Professional bats (both acquired like DeRosa and Huff, and retained like Uribe and Renteria).

After the Giants were swept by the Padres I figured I would have no hope of them holding to my early pre-season predictions (14-8 in April).  But maybe it is still within reach.  Can the Gigantes sweep the Phillies (behind Tim's pitching) and win the opener against the Rockies?  By month, here's how I see the Giants season record shaping up:

April 2010: 14 wins - 8 losses.
May 2010:  20 wins - 8 losses     (overall 34-16)
June 2010:  17 wins - 10 losses   (overall 51-26)
July 2010:   15 wins - 13 losses   (overall 66-39)
Aug 2010:   14 wins - 14 losses   (overall 80-53)
Sept/Oct:    18 wins - 11 losses   (overall 98-64)

With all the talk surrounding Posey and how many fans want him up right now, I think this is ridiculous.  Soon, I'll talk about Buster Posey and when I think he'll be brought up.  Or should be brought up and why.
(hint: Monday June 14th at home vs. Baltimore w/ Matt Cain starting).

Go Giants!

SF Gigantes!

Okay, here's the deal.  My first post specifically about the San Francisco Giants will be an overview of some of my fundamental thoughts and opinions.  I didn't start this blog before the season, so I'll recap a bit right now.

First, WE DON'T NEED A BIG BAT.  WE DON'T WANT A BIG BAT.

There, I've said it.  Everybody seems to want one. But I think this is the lamest argument if you truly want our Giants to succeed.  First, my biggest question during the off-season was would the front office spend the money?  I think they were 7th in payroll LAST SEASON.  And that included something like 14 players making league minimum (about $400k) and something like 17 players making about $600k or less.

I mean, Lincecum, Wilson, Romo, Schierholtz, Torres, Velez, Sandoval, Downs, Ishikawa, and other notables.  Yeah, seriously.  Sure, we knew we could prolly cut some weight without re-signing Winn.  But still, we had to pay The Man (Lincecum).  I think he could've argued for Super Two if it got to arbitration.

Look, we're not in the largest sports markets like NY or Boston.  But we had a pretty high payroll, and justificably so- excellent game attendence records and merchandise sales helped.  We still had baggage in the form of some big 2010 contracts (mostly Zito $18.5M, Rowand $13.6M, and Renteria $10M).  Add in paying the required aforementioned (Lincecum, Wilson, Romo, etc.), and what do we get?  Suddenly the 2009 payroll of about $82.6 million would easily at $90 million already.

Add Freddy Sanchez, Mota, re-signing Bengie, Uribe, Jonathan Sanchez (to avoid arbitration)... And there we are.  Hovering right around $90 million for the 2010 payroll.

Sure, I wanted to see a trade at the 2009 deadline for Ryan Braun.  We need a left fielder and a bat.  But he's more than just power.  He's a professional bat for average and power and a very good fielder defensively.  Sure, he's practically franchise in Milwaukee; but did you notice they re-signed him a day AFTER the trade deadline expired?  Hmmm, maybe the right deal would've dealt him.

Or there is Jason Bey, who I wanted to see land at SFO as a Giant during the offseason.  My 'best case scenario' would've seen Bey and Marco Scutaro come to be SF Giants (and the Giants footing a payroll of about $105 million).  But again, same thing.  Very few players "fit" the role of what I think the Giants need.  And sure, they would've needed to trade AND pay for him.  At the end of the day, it just doesn't work.  Actually, it just CAN'T work.

Where do we get leverage?  Give up Posey and Bumgardener?  Or Wheeler, Pucetas, and Sergio's little brother Andrew Romo (that we just recently signed)? And pay a $14-18 million per year contract?  I'm quite certain that us going up to a $115-125 million payroll could all but lock-up a pennant.  But I don't see Neukom and the Burns and Sabean and all leaning towards that direction.  Seriously, ticket prices and merchandise pricing is insane enough as is... What is it now for the Garlic Fries at the Park?  huh.  yeah. Go figure.

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Okay, so we can't get a big bat.  We need bats for average.
IF THERE IS ONLY ONE STAT TO LOOK AT THIS YEAR, LOOK AT THIS ONE:

Last year (2009):
the SF Giants had 10 games where they were shut out.
26 games where they scored only one run.
And 25 games where the Giants only scored 2 runs.

Yup, that was the anemic run support for our great pitching staff.  36 games of one run or less.  A total of 61 games of two runs or less.  And I feel we were lucky to have sqeaked 12 wins in that unremarkable cluster of 61 games played.  With professional bats like Huff and DeRosa and Renteria, we should be able to greatly improve.  And especially with doubles hitters like Schierholtz and Sandoval and Freddy Sanchez and Velez.

Face it, we aren't set up for a big bat.  Look at the lack of production from Matt Holiday while with the A's.  Without respect for the rest of the line-up, he can't be at his best.  We all know this formula, you need another big bat to protect the best bat. And honestly, Sandoval isn't quite that guy yet.  Plus, we play not only in AT&T Park, but in San Diego and Arizona- which can usually be described as more "pitcher-friendly" parks, right?  And then we also have Houston in the NL Central with a cavernous center field.  Anyways, I'm sure you get the idea.

Getting Huff and DeRosa were excellent moves in the offeseason IMHO.  For the price, I don't know if we could've done any better.  And I can't believe I am actually happy to see Bengie Molina back as a Giant.  During any time last season, I would've been glad if he got traded.  But during the off-season, I think the move to keep him became essential.  I'm happy as long as he doesn't bat above 6th in the lineup.  He should be a 6th or 7th every game IMHO.

So, at the end of the season, check how many 1 run games we have, how many 2 run games we have, and how many times we're shut out.  I think it will be appreciably less.  Like around 21-25 games of 1 run or less and 16-19 games of 2 runs scored.  That's why I think this is the single most telling stat of the SF Giants for the entire season.  I am optimistic that it will yield a very different stat with our current roster.

That would be between 37-44 games instead of the severe 61 games of last season. And, more importantly, those 12 wins (in 61 games) will easily be 24-28 wins, I'd suppose.

Next up, my SF Giants season prediction.

Cheers.