9/20 Lincecum vs. Kershaw Showdown Tonight

Oh man.  Here’s the lineup for tonight’s Lincecum vs. Kershaw matchup:

CF  Torres

2B  Keppinger

RF  Beltran

3B  DeRosa

1B  Pill

SS  Cabrera

LF Christian

C   Stewart

P   Lincecum

This does not look good, Giants fans.  Lincecum already doesn’t get enough run support.  In recent times, Torres isn’t comfortable- and has been especially ineffective from the right side.  Keppinger doesn’t seem to be seeing the ball as well the last week or two.  Beltran is effectively ‘isolated’ in the lineup without Pablo, and DeRosa behind him.  Could I imagine the LAD putting Beltran on first twice with IBB's?  Yes, I could.  Pill is also not protected in the lineup with Cabrera (who doesn’t hit for power) behind him.  Christian hasn’t shown enough production at the MLB level, Stewart is not playing due to his offense, and Lincecum is not a exactly an offensive threat at the plate.

I hope Torres can find a way to get on base.  He’s the only Giant that scores nearly 50% of the time he gets on base.  Since 2009, he hovers around scoring 45% of the time he’s on.  No other Giant is even close.  He might not be a ‘hot hitter’ like the 2010 Torres, but he makes a big difference if/when he gets on.  That’s for dang sure.  And that can definitely start rallies.  We all know hitting is contagious with our Giants (if you don’t, please consult your doctor).

I see a lot of quick one-two-three innings for the Giants hitters.  Or maybe sprinkle in one runner stranded on first (a walk, a bloop single, etc) for a couple innings.  Yeah, not good.

Conversely, the Dodgers.  It’s really not even about them.  It’s about our lineup- well, our defense.  My first reaction to seeing this Giants lineup was “three doubles against us”.  A couple lefty hitters (Loney and Ethier, for example) going down the third-base line, can DeRo be expected to range and pick ‘em on the hot corner?  We’d better hope so.  Some right-handed bats like Kemp, Barajas, and Rivera…  Can Beltran actually run some good angles in RF and keep a batter to a single?  We’d better hope so.  Or can we have solid defense on a gap shot between the outfielders?  We’d better hope so.

I can see a scenario where Lincecum is going to have to be nails.  Two situations where he’ll need to get out of a ‘runner on third, less than two out”.  Maybe Gordon takes a walk and steals second, gets hit over to third.  Maybe those dang doubles I envision being hit off Lincecum.  To counter all this, Lincecum would need his best stuff.  I’m looking for 11 or more strikeouts today.  And yes, that also means he needs to get to at least six-and-two-thirds innings.

This may be the biggest game left on the schedule for our G-Men.  Any who ask how I could say the head-to-head games with AZ aren’t more meaningful?  Well…  They really are only meaningful if we sweep the Dodgers first.  And if somehow we can find a way to get this game against Kewshaw, I think that feeling of ‘invincibility’ we seemed to carry after beating ATL in the NLDS could come back to us.  And I hope that can all happen- starting tonight.

The amount of pressure both pitchers are facing tonight are tremendous.  Kershaw wants to solidify his spot as a top candidate for the 2011 NL Cy Young.  Don’t think for a second that ain’t nothing to a pitcher.  Lincecum is pitching for our virtual last gasp at reaching the post-season this year.

Can we maintain the offensive level we’ve carried into and through Colorado?  I don’t know.  I think it is a mental grind when you’re backed up against a wall for that long a stretch.  I know these two rivals both want to shove the game into the others’ proverbial faces.  But…  I also think one ace pitcher will crack tonight.

So, who?  That’s way beyond my ability to ‘predict’.  Odds don’t favor this Giants lineup as getting the ‘tilt’ in their favor.  But who knows?  Maybe Bochy will actually make good bench moves in favorable situations tonight.  Maybe.

My feeling is that this will NOT be a pitchers’ duel late into the game.

One team will have 3 runs scored against them by the fourth inning or 4 runs scored against them by the fifth inning.  Those dang doubles worry me.  Maybe a ball tipping off the glove of Cabrera and getting Miles a double…  Whatever.  Just my big concern of this game: don’t give up the doubles tonight.

So?  I’m not really taking a stance on the score or who wins.  I can’t “see it” tonight.  While I’ve been posting on Extra Baggs, I’ve pretty much nailed my predictions the last four straight games.  Yes, including scoring four runs in the first four innings on Harang, Pill’s bases-clearing triple, Fontenot getting hit-by-a-pitch, Cain’s home run, Bumgarner shutting down the Rox offense, the bottom of the order winning a game, Pablo and Carlos carrying the offense the next game.  This ain’t just ‘guesses’ at scores or spreads.  I’ve been talking specifics.  And today’s game?  No doubles for L.A.!

Let’s Go Giants!  BEAT L.A.!

Image credit: This image of Andres Torres is my own.  All Rights Reserved.

Get Erick Aybar to SF!

Erick Aybar: ALDS Game 2

It's been a long time...

I've been interested in Erick Aybar for a long while now.  And I still want Aybar in the Orange & Black. I was the first to bring him up on Andrew Baggarly’s blog, Extra Baggs and on KNBR with Marty Lurie.  I believe he should be our #1 target acquisition this off-season.  I see more and more ways of doing this, how does this look to you?

SF Giants trade:

LHP Barry Zito ($39M + $7M buyout = $46M over 2-years)

LHP Jonathan Sanchez

3B  Conor Gillaspie

Since the Angels cut Scott Kazmir, they have no starting LHP in their rotation.  They also have virtually all RHP starter prospects in their farm system.  Zito could be a LOOGY (Lefty-One-Out-Guy) or long relief.  I imagine a rotation of: Weaver, Haren, Santana, Sanchez, Pinero/Chatwood should easily outperform  the rest of the AL West.  J. Sanchez even has a better 2011 ERA (4.26) than 3 of their starters used this year (Pinero 5.33, Chatwood 4.59, and Richards 8.22).  I won’t even be cruel and include Kazmir’s 1.2 inning 2011 season ERA of 27.00

The Angels had to make a splash after missing out on: Cliff Lee, Adrian Beltre and Carl Crawford, and they’ll be feeling this error for three more years (and $63M) if they can’t move him.  Why?  They will have premier rookie Mike Trout in LF, Peter Bourjos in CF, and Torii Hunter in RF.  That is an incredible outfield, I’d say a top-5 in all of baseball for 2012.  They’re effectively eating $21M/year unless an OF is injured.

Anaheim Angels trade:

SS Erick Aybar

LF Vernon Wells ($63M over 3-years)

+ $24M cash consideration to offset payroll

Aybar, I see tons of upside: speed, power, avg, OBP, OPS.  He’s also young, healthy, well below market value, solid or plus defense, a plus arm, and I absolutely believe he will grow into a premier shortstop in another year or two.  Maybe he can't have the Coors Field-inflated power numbers of Tulowitski, but he certainly could be in the same discussions as Hanley Ramirez and Jose Reyes for years to come.  I believe he could hit 35-40 2B, 10 3B, and 15 HR as a Giant and steal 30+ bases per season.  A lead-off and SS are two of the three major holes we’ll need to fill this off-season (other being CF).

Aybar isn’t even close to their only SS option in Anaheim.  Some thought Brandon Wood would win the job beginning 2011, he was (curiously) released and picked up by PIT.  They have Maicer Izturis ready right now to play SS (who plays a bit at 3B), their #2 prospect is SS Jean Segura who Scioscia wants to remain at  SS (not convert to 2B).  They even have another excellent SS prospect in switch-hitter Andrew Romine.

Left field we can have Wells and Belt platoon.  Huff and Pill platoon 1B.  After Huff is gone (in 2013) Belt and Pill could platoon if Belt doesn’t earn the job outright.  Schierholtz in RF.  Justin Christian or another (Tyler Graham or Francisco Peguero) take CF until Brown is ready, maybe mid or late 2012?

Aybar can also remain in our lineup long-term.  I don't see any other position player we might acquire have staying power into the future plans of our Gigantes.  Maybe by 2013 Joe Panik is 2B, Gary Brown in CF.  By 2013, if Brown leads-off, Aybar easily fits into the 2-hole vacated by Freddy Sanchez… Perfect!  Maybe by 2014, Posey is at 1B and Tommy Joseph (or Susac) is catching with Hector Sanchez the 2^nd catcher.  Shortstop is the only position we could acquire a lead-off/#2 hitter and keep them in our long-term road map.  Not LF, not CF, nor anywhere else- unless Nate Schierholtz is basically released from RF.

I realize Wells isn’t Carlos Beltran or Michael Cuddyer or even Nick Swisher.  But if Belt, Huff, Pill, and Schierholtz have any sort of offensive numbers our lineup would look very strong.  Especially if right-handed Wells can add some much needed pop to our lineup.

We get production from Zito’s contract money (in Wells at LF), we likely can move Eric Surkamp or Justin Fitzgerald into the #5 starter role for 2012.  We trim the $6M-ish of J. Sanchez for 2012.  We get our starting SS of the future and lead-off hitter!  And we get a serious bat to deepen our lineup.  Sure, I get that Vernon Wells is slumping in 2011.  I'll take my chances with a right-handed bat that just might run into 30 home runs a year versus Zito sitting on a paycheck for two more years. That's my take on it, and I'm sticking to it.

Some of  the naysayers will naysay: "Nobody would want Zito, he's untradeable."  I beg to differ.  Consider that Vernon Wells had one of the most "untradeable" contracts in MLB and yet, the stealthy Blue Jays head honcho Alex Anthopoulos got it done.  How did he also get Napoli in that deal and keep him away from the Rays?  Seriously, how did he get Jose Bautista to sign for around $16.5M per?   He was also around when the Jays unloaded Alex Rios.  Is  A.A. up in the T-Dot a hypnotist or something?  Scary.

We have an incredibly high standard for pitchers here in San Francisco, as well we should.  Perrenially, we have just about the best pitching in baseball.  Not just starters, but bullpen, and closer too.  We might easily forget that most teams in baseball consider a 3.50 ERA "fantastic" and a #4 or #5 starter's ERA of 4.50 ERA to be "great".  Here with Lincecum, Cain, Bumgarner, and this year with Vogelsong, we say "phooey" to all that.

Here I give you, Seattle fans are asking for Zito in exchange for Chone Figgins.  They aren't contenders, you naysay?  Here, I give you exhibit 1B: maybe the Angels might actually WANT Zito.  If you can convince me they aren't contenders, come back and we'll talk further.

But wouldn't the Angels want to keep Aybar?  Don't the fans like his fantastic play and his team value?  It appears that even at the start of this season, there was little to no confidence in Aybar from Angels insiders.  They need a fifth starter, a lefty would serve them perfectly.  IMHO, J. Sanchez would be a perfect fit for Scioscia's leadership.  They are dumping money like it's going into an Orange County landfill with Vernon Wells.  They got depth like a scuba diver at shortstop.  It just works.

Why can we add Gillaspie to the trade?  He’ll have no place for us on the Giants.  Recognized as a below-average defenseman, if Sandoval ever moves to first, I’d bet Posey shifts to 3B.  If that doesn’t happen, Chris Dominguez is making a strong case he’d be in the wings waiting next in line.  The Angels appear thinner at 3B than other positions, with their prospects too.  They could look at Conor and maybe he’ll have a better chance at playing time.  It just works.

Heck, there MIGHT even be another factor in this trade.  If the large salary of Vernon Wells is shifted into something “productive” for the Halos (like a LHP starting pitcher), maybe, just maybe, the Angels become a top contender for Carlos Beltran as their DH and try to move the slipping Bobby Abreu (.254 avg, .720 OPS, 30 2B, 1 3B, 7 HR, 55 RBI in 562 PA this 2011 season) who has already vested his 2012 option.  Maybe they can ‘afford’ to pay him off, or trade him with a chunk of ‘cash consideration’ to offset his $9M 2012 salary.  Not sure they’d be willing to jump up in payroll enough, but they are looking like serious AL contenders from 2012 moving forward, so it could be possible.

Does anybody lose in this trade?  Methinks not.  I'm just sayin'...

_______________________

Look, please don't get me started on another topic...  If we don't sign solid offense this off-season, we're going to lose our elite pitching staff rather quickly-like.  Yes, I know Lincecum's contract status, and I know that if he were to leave in a year or two (long story; but traded or walked...); I believe Anaheim would be his destination.  You read me right, not the NY Yankees, not the Boston Red Sox, and not  the Seattle Mariners.

You want to see an AL powerhouse to contend year after year with the 'Evil Empire' that is the Yankees?  Enter: Lincecum, Weaver, Haren, J. Sanchez, Chatwood/Santana.  Add Trout, Bourjos, Hunter, Kendrick, Trumbo, Kendry Morales, and Conger as serious bats. With a wicked DH like Beltran?  Oh dear, oh jebesus me.  Yeah, the Angels would pay-at-all-costs if Lincecum hit the market.  And, I think they'd get him.

Maybe the Angels would need a closer to really be a powerhouse; if young, hard-throwing (he's hit 102 mph) Jordan Walden doesn't continue to improve?  Oh, again, think of the Giants as Angels Farm North.  I think Brian Wilson will become available when his salary skies over $12.5M/year in a couple years, and Sergio Romo or Heath Hembree could take over.

Sincere thanks for your visit here.  Cheers.

Image credit: Erick Aybar from ALDS Game 2, 2010 from Boston.com.

Bruce Bochy is an idiot.

Let me start by saying that second-guessing decisions AFTER the fact is useless.  The fact that sports are unpredictable and sometimes things work out in weird ways is understandable.  After we learn the outcome, anybody can jump on the bandwagon and question Bochy's decisions.  And I guess we all have- not only this time but time and time again.

Whew.  There, I said it.  But this isn't just about second-guessing.  It's about me not understanding WHY he made the decisions he did.  And how, time and time again; I think he just tears the team apart.

Let's see.  The SF Giants have a 4-1 lead going into the 9th inning.  Your two-time reigning Cy Young award-winning pitcher has pitched a brilliant 8 innings of baseball.  You'll need to face a pinch hitter in the 9th spot and the top of the Phillies lineup to close the game.  This means Dobbs, Victorino, and Polanco; respectively.  After that, you're really playing with fire.

So, Tim Licecum starts the top of the ninth against the left-handed batter Polanco and induces the first out on an infield hit towards Ishikawa with a 1-2 count.  He then walks the switch-hitting Victorino on four pitches and gets yanked by the skipper, Bochy.

Here are my issues with all this.

Don't even talk about pitch count to me.  Lincecum started the 9th inning with a 98 pitch count.  If Bochy wanted to start Affeldt, Romo, Runzler, or Wilson for the 9th, I'd have had no issue at all with that.  He could've gone to Tim and said, "You gave us more than we could've asked of you, let's have our bullpen shut it down."  I'd have not seen this as a problem- no issue at all with me.


Here's the thing.  If Licecum was on a pitch count, he wouldn't have started the 9th at all.  I can't be convinced otherwise.  And we've all seen that he's gone into towards 120 pitches in games last season.

If you're gonna trust him, and let him go out there... Well, Bruce Bochy, you've gotta wear it.  You're the skipper, you've gotta own it.  He gets one out, then walks one.  Let's take inventory... One on, with a three-run lead.  The tying run isn't even at bat.  My point?  Tim Licecum deserves the right- and the respect- to face this next right-handed batter in Polanco (who was 1 for 3 against Lincecum).  Again, it isn't even the tying run at the dish.

Does anybody remember the game last year (was it against the Rockies in about July/August, I can't remember), when Bochy pulled Zito after 4 2/3 innings with the game tied and he couldn't even have a chance for the decision?  And later in that same game, he pulled Affeldt after he walked a batter... This was when Affeldt's no-runs-scored-against streak was at a some sort of insane number like 27 innings or thereabouts.

My point here?  Wasn't Bochy a catcher in his less-than-illustrious playing career?  He certainly doesn't seem to ingratiate himself with his spectacular-best-in-baseball pitching staff.  I can't imagine what the clubhouse would feel like after one of these incidents.  His pitching staff should have a right to be upset with him- their skipper.

Okay, back to this Giants-Phillies game yesterday.  Wilson gets Polanco out on a long fly ball to center field for the second out.  Cool.  Groovy.  Next, Chase Utley singles off Wilson and the speedy Victorino moves to third base.

Two major things happened here I didn't like.

First, you decide to pitch to Howard.  If you do this, you could at least support this by not allowing Utley to move to 2nd base with defensive indifference.  I mean, you lost the potential of a force out at second.  Sure, Howard isn't the fastest runner out of the box, but I mean... You give up the ninety feet here, really?  Why not one throw over at least?  We didn't need to pitch to Manny in Los Angeles, but we did and look what that brought us.  Does Bochy even understand this concept?  Yes, I understand he represented the tying run, but you could have a force-out at every base and a potentially more favorable match-up for your righty.

Second, you let right-handed closer Wilson face left-handed batter Howard.  Hey, maybe I got used to watching real baseball managers over the years, but why not bring in a lefty from the bullpen?  Even if it's only to face one batter.  It seemed like a tailor-made situation for Affeldt who induces so many ground balls. Or hard throwing Runzler who's been nails so far all season.  Remember, you're only needing one out here.  And you're looking at two great hitters, batting and on-deck.

Third, Wilson just got hit for a single (by left-handed batter Utley) and then "semi-intentionally, intentionally walked" Howard, I guess.  But the point is, now the tying run is on-base.  If you have a short leash for Tim Lincecum walking one batter, why the double standard when Wilson comes in and gets only one (of the two needed outs) and loads the bases.  Okay, I can say this is a 'push'... Wilson could easily have gotten a third strike called on any of two or three of his pitches against Werth.  I think he alluded to this fact in his post-game interview when he said "I can only control where I pitch to..."  Being vague enough that he shouldn't be able to get fined by the League, but enough to explain his frustration at maybe not getting a call.  Fair enough.

Now, getting back to the game... Ibanez is up and you intentionally walk him to allow the force out?  But you wouldn't do this to Howard earlier?  Sure, it was clear Wilson wasn't going to come inside to Howard, but you just don't absolutely know with Wilson... My point is he gets to a full count an awful lot for a closer, and Howard could've put some hurt on IF Wilson had made any type of mistake.  He didn't there, but still... When and where Bochy will gamble is very suspect to me.

Bottom of the 9th inning, Sandoval leads off with a single.  I respect Ishikawa's defense and he's not a terrible batter, but you've gotta know if he's not a good bunter to not call for a bunt here.  I mean, you're in the National League for goodness sake, you could use any of your pitchers to do this on the first or second pitch as a pinch hitter.

Okay, but what about first base position, you've already used Huff and now Ishikawa?  No problem, Sandoval has played pretty solidly at first base in the past.  But since you've now used the pitcher (pinch bunting) you'd have all kinds of options (for later inning batter positions) based on how this inning plays out.  Instead, Ishikawa strikes out looking.  Bah.

At least DeRosa moves Sandoval over to second.  But now you've got two outs. And it just takes the bat out of Bengie Molina's hands (basically all because it is two outs now).  I don't mind the idea of Matt Downs having a chance here, he's a pretty solid player.  Oh well.

Affeldt hits Schneider right in the middle of the back to start the top of the 10th. After a sacrifice bunt by Valdez, Victorino singles to move the runner to third and only one out.  Jeez, again, is there a double standard?  Now, game is tied at 4-4 inn extra innings.  You're willing to pull your Ace of Aces after a single walk before the tying run is even at bat. Now, your lefty holder has hit a batter, been singled on, and is facing a righty.  Why not pull him right here?  If you were using the same standards as when you yanked Timmy out... I'm just sayin'.


Ooops, wild pitch plates one.  Clearly Affeldt isn't at his best today, why is he in still to face the righty Polanco for the rest of his AB?  Then he plunks Polanco's back foot.  Affeldt has hit a batter in the center of the back, been singled on, thrown a wild pitch, and hit a second batter in this extra inning.  Still, it's only one out and he's STILL in there pitching?  Again, double standard compared to Lincecum?  Duh.  Bochy is an idiot.

Okay, lefty Affeldt walks lefty Utley on four pitches to load the bases, top o' the Tenth.  Surely Bochy will pull Affledt now... He doesn't have his best stuff.  Oh, what?  He's gonna face the slugger Howard?  ha ha.  He gets him on three straight curveballs.  lol.  But really, a recipe for disaster.  And again, how was Jeremy even still in there?

Finally a move that makes sense, bring in righty Romo to face righty Werth. And he stops Werth and holds the 5-4 game into the bottom of the 10th.

Bottom of the 10th, Renteria helps tie it up again at 5-5 and now two outs.  You've got the fastest Giant (with 4.1 speed to first base) on third in Andres Torres.  The Phillies are giving a free pass to Sandoval.  A more agressive manager should try to steal home here- I would've loved to see this.  There is absolutely no downside here.  Madson is throwing the intentional balls 8-10 feet off the plate.  Schneider is soft-tossing them back.  Force them to make a play.  Steal it off the return throw from the catcher.  Madson might panic making his throw home, Schneider might not even get into position to cover the plate.  The ball could hit Torres and bounce away.

Worst case scenario?  He's tagged out and Pablo has a chance to lead off the 11th.  Seriously, that's not a bad thing.  Bochy is an idiot.

Okay, you can say it's not a bad idea to have confidence in your team.  Sure, Ishikawa could've produced a walk-off hit.  Maybe one out of six chances like this he would.

On the Phillies side, why does Manuel use his last remaining player off the bench to bunt?  Do these managers understand they are in the National freakin' League?  He could've used a pitcher.  Duh.  I will never understand this.  Ever.  Never ever.

I think Velez might've been seeing stars after that run-in with the wall in left field.  Oh yeah, and gettting bonked on the head.  Is there something weird about left field at AT&T Park?  I could've sworn I saw Fred Lewis out there yesterday.  sigh.  Sadly, Velez might've just lost the roster spot that will need to be vacated for Freddy Sanchez when he returns in a couple weeks.  I figure it is him or Matt Downs, and I've always been a fan of both these guys.  Maybe it will be Ishikawa, since Uribe maybe plays third and Sandoval maybe plays first defensively if Huff is replaced in late innings.

The only decision of Bochy's I did like was batting Uribe in favor of Bowker in the 11th, with one out.  But seriously, where did Bochy learn how to manage a baseball game?  From Bazzoka gum wrappers?

Why pinch run Whiteside for Molina at first base?  Bochy is an idiot.  Seriously, I understand you want a faster runner.  You have only Bowker and Whiteside left as batters off the bench- and clearly Whiteside is the better batter of the two right now.  You could've used any pitcher as a pinch runner, Bochy has done it before.  Cain or Zito or Sanchez quickly come to mind.  Please remember, we're down two runs, this isn't even the tying runner on first.


Bottom of the 11th, why not send Uribe home?  Bochy is an idiot.  With Schierholtz's speed on second, from his double... Why not take a chance, force a great throw to home and great play from the Phillies defense.  Worst case, you have speedy Nate on second and two outs- but a hit still scores him to tie.  Instead, you're still behind by one run and there's one out.  Plus, the throw went to second, not even to the cut-off man.  sigh.

Then you send Uribe on the next play with an infield swinging bunt by Velez?  What are you thinking? Stupid, stupid.  Poor judgement IMHO.  You won't send him when he's rounding the bag when the ball is 100 feet further in the outfield, but you'll send him  when the ball is fieldied inside the diamond?  Seriously?

Bottom line, Bochy is an idiot.  He's gonna hurt this team- this team that has a lot of great opportunities this season to be something really special.

SF Gigantes!

Okay, here's the deal.  My first post specifically about the San Francisco Giants will be an overview of some of my fundamental thoughts and opinions.  I didn't start this blog before the season, so I'll recap a bit right now.

First, WE DON'T NEED A BIG BAT.  WE DON'T WANT A BIG BAT.

There, I've said it.  Everybody seems to want one. But I think this is the lamest argument if you truly want our Giants to succeed.  First, my biggest question during the off-season was would the front office spend the money?  I think they were 7th in payroll LAST SEASON.  And that included something like 14 players making league minimum (about $400k) and something like 17 players making about $600k or less.

I mean, Lincecum, Wilson, Romo, Schierholtz, Torres, Velez, Sandoval, Downs, Ishikawa, and other notables.  Yeah, seriously.  Sure, we knew we could prolly cut some weight without re-signing Winn.  But still, we had to pay The Man (Lincecum).  I think he could've argued for Super Two if it got to arbitration.

Look, we're not in the largest sports markets like NY or Boston.  But we had a pretty high payroll, and justificably so- excellent game attendence records and merchandise sales helped.  We still had baggage in the form of some big 2010 contracts (mostly Zito $18.5M, Rowand $13.6M, and Renteria $10M).  Add in paying the required aforementioned (Lincecum, Wilson, Romo, etc.), and what do we get?  Suddenly the 2009 payroll of about $82.6 million would easily at $90 million already.

Add Freddy Sanchez, Mota, re-signing Bengie, Uribe, Jonathan Sanchez (to avoid arbitration)... And there we are.  Hovering right around $90 million for the 2010 payroll.

Sure, I wanted to see a trade at the 2009 deadline for Ryan Braun.  We need a left fielder and a bat.  But he's more than just power.  He's a professional bat for average and power and a very good fielder defensively.  Sure, he's practically franchise in Milwaukee; but did you notice they re-signed him a day AFTER the trade deadline expired?  Hmmm, maybe the right deal would've dealt him.

Or there is Jason Bey, who I wanted to see land at SFO as a Giant during the offseason.  My 'best case scenario' would've seen Bey and Marco Scutaro come to be SF Giants (and the Giants footing a payroll of about $105 million).  But again, same thing.  Very few players "fit" the role of what I think the Giants need.  And sure, they would've needed to trade AND pay for him.  At the end of the day, it just doesn't work.  Actually, it just CAN'T work.

Where do we get leverage?  Give up Posey and Bumgardener?  Or Wheeler, Pucetas, and Sergio's little brother Andrew Romo (that we just recently signed)? And pay a $14-18 million per year contract?  I'm quite certain that us going up to a $115-125 million payroll could all but lock-up a pennant.  But I don't see Neukom and the Burns and Sabean and all leaning towards that direction.  Seriously, ticket prices and merchandise pricing is insane enough as is... What is it now for the Garlic Fries at the Park?  huh.  yeah. Go figure.

-----------------------------------------------

Okay, so we can't get a big bat.  We need bats for average.
IF THERE IS ONLY ONE STAT TO LOOK AT THIS YEAR, LOOK AT THIS ONE:

Last year (2009):
the SF Giants had 10 games where they were shut out.
26 games where they scored only one run.
And 25 games where the Giants only scored 2 runs.

Yup, that was the anemic run support for our great pitching staff.  36 games of one run or less.  A total of 61 games of two runs or less.  And I feel we were lucky to have sqeaked 12 wins in that unremarkable cluster of 61 games played.  With professional bats like Huff and DeRosa and Renteria, we should be able to greatly improve.  And especially with doubles hitters like Schierholtz and Sandoval and Freddy Sanchez and Velez.

Face it, we aren't set up for a big bat.  Look at the lack of production from Matt Holiday while with the A's.  Without respect for the rest of the line-up, he can't be at his best.  We all know this formula, you need another big bat to protect the best bat. And honestly, Sandoval isn't quite that guy yet.  Plus, we play not only in AT&T Park, but in San Diego and Arizona- which can usually be described as more "pitcher-friendly" parks, right?  And then we also have Houston in the NL Central with a cavernous center field.  Anyways, I'm sure you get the idea.

Getting Huff and DeRosa were excellent moves in the offeseason IMHO.  For the price, I don't know if we could've done any better.  And I can't believe I am actually happy to see Bengie Molina back as a Giant.  During any time last season, I would've been glad if he got traded.  But during the off-season, I think the move to keep him became essential.  I'm happy as long as he doesn't bat above 6th in the lineup.  He should be a 6th or 7th every game IMHO.

So, at the end of the season, check how many 1 run games we have, how many 2 run games we have, and how many times we're shut out.  I think it will be appreciably less.  Like around 21-25 games of 1 run or less and 16-19 games of 2 runs scored.  That's why I think this is the single most telling stat of the SF Giants for the entire season.  I am optimistic that it will yield a very different stat with our current roster.

That would be between 37-44 games instead of the severe 61 games of last season. And, more importantly, those 12 wins (in 61 games) will easily be 24-28 wins, I'd suppose.

Next up, my SF Giants season prediction.

Cheers.

the start of something...

Hi there.

Yeah sure, I know... Everybody, and their sister, and their mother's cousin has a blog these days.  And prolly a sports blog.  So, how is mine different?  Well, in short- it isn't.  It's a blog, folks.  But hopefully I can offer some insights and opinions others might find relevant and helpful.  Otherwise, you simply walk away... yup, that's it. I won't spend a lot of time making it sexy with pictures, these are just my humble rants.

First off, I'm a huge hockey fan; and yes, that means the San Jose Sharks.  Yeah, I remember back when they started at the Cow Palace.  And yes, HP Pavillion is an amazing venue.  I'll talk more about the 2nd round of the playoffs before that series gets underway.

Second, I've really come to enjoy baseball more and more over the years and have always been a San Francisco Giants fan.  And a big fan of Kruk and Kuip especially.  Personally, I think Giants fans need to learn how to be better fans of this amazing team- and they have the potential to be something really special this season.  More about this coming up next.

Third, I was a big fan of the 49ers while growing up, moved away for quite a few years and have now been back for a while... Sadly, the Niners haven't been able to field a very competitive team, but they're really on the right track.  IMHO, they are starting to build a team that can not only compete; but one that can win.  I'll be talking more about this over time.  But Sharks and G-Men will take center stage for a while.

Fourth, Golden State Warriors basketball.  Sadly, I've never been able to fall totally in love with them.  Every time I really enjoyed the team and its potential, they'd trade all the  key components away in the off-season.  As a kid, I enjoyed watching Sleepy Floyd, Gus Williams, and Rick Barry... But I never really liked Nellie.  And after they broke up TMC, the dealings with Sprewell, Chris Webber, and all... They pretty much lost me.  More about them as my time permits, but basically...

Historically, the GSW's always trade their talent away- the talent they work so hard to get.  Don't even get me started on name dropping... Start whereever you want, trading the rights to Wilt Chamberlain, or the more recent: Tim Hardaway, Penny, C Webb, Baron Davis, Jamal Crawford, Stephen Jackson, Jason Richardson, Antawn Jamison, Derek Fisher, and so many more...  It's such a bad trend, I can't figure out how they deserve the fan loyalty they get at home games- and they get the best fans in the NBA IMHO.

If you've read this far, you've prolly noticed I haven't mentioned the Athletics or the Raiders or the San Jose Earthquakes yet.  Or the FC Gold Pride, or any college sports teams.  Sorry folks, I haven't been excited about the A's since the days of Ricky Henderson and Dave Stewart and Eckersley, but I do think they have the makings of a pretty solid team this year.  Even though Sheets got shelled today, I think he was a very good pick-up for the A's.  He'll continue to prove it over the course of the season. And Kurt Suzuki is due for a lot more national attention than he gets as a premier catcher in The Bigs.  I think he's one of the absolute best.

That's it for my first post.  Stay tuned, I'll be posting some of my thoughts about tomorrow's SF Giants match up against the Phillies to close out this series.  And in the next day or two will post some thoughts about the San Jose Sharks and what I think they need to continue to move further towards The Cup.

Cheers.