Sunday, September 25, 2011

Anything is Possible

I'll try to remain hopeful that the SF Giants actually make some smart moves this off-season.  Sure we might see Zito back in the orange and black next year.  Yes, we might have Jimmy Rollins here as a sort of homecoming for him.  It's possible we could trade (likely way too much IMO) for Michael Cuddyer.

But I'm hopeful the Giants look at things a bit more creatively after this season.  The 'old ways' of aging veteran 'values' doesn't really work.  We need offense or we'll see our pitching staff gone.  I wouldn't blame them one bit, nor hold it against them.

Here, I'm posting some of my Excel spreadsheets.  Have a looksee over the contract estimates I'm using if you like.  Skip 'em if you don't.  If you're too lazy to drag your mouse and click to open the PDF's to view, I'm listing the major contract estimates below.

There's no real way of knowing how much players (like Bumgarner) will be worth in three more years' time.  He could produce numbers that overshadow Lincecum and Cain, they may not.  What type of arbitration numbers are prevalent in 2015?  Does anyone eclipse Fielder's record in arbitration?  Does a new catcher eclipse Mauer's and make all top-5 catchers more highly paid?

It's all fluid.  I get it.  I just plugged in numbers I think may work reasonably.  I also front-loaded a few contracts to ensure a 'payroll balance' over a longer term.  Will Kemp mind an earlier big payday?  I doubt it.  Will he mind when his salary dwindles by 2015?  Uh, yeah...  I'm sure.  But he'll also be a year or two away from a serious chunk of new cheddar in big, snazzy, fancy, bloated, shiny, new contract (if he continues to perform well).  I think it works.  As a recent example, A Rod has a slightly front-loaded contract.

Please remember, the first year of a contract (listed below) isn't necessarily 2012.  Some players still have arbitration years remaining.  Some of the first years (below) may also cut into those arb years.

  • Aybar:  $64M/6  = 8.5, 9, 12, 12, 12, 10.5
  • Kemp:  $92M/5  = 21, 27, 18, 14, 12
  • Sandoval:  $82.5M/6  = 5, 18, 12, 12, 17.5, 18
  • Posey:  $$45M/4  = 6, 8, 15, 16
  • Lincecum:  $80M/4  = 19, 20, 20, 21
  • Cain:  $97M/5  = 18, 19.5, 19.5 20, 20
  • Bumgarner:  $54.175M/5  = 3.275, 5.5, 12, 15.4, 18
  • Vogelsong:  $6.1M/2  = 2.5, 3.6
  • Casilla:  $11.7M/4  = 2.4, 2.4, 3.1, 3.8
  • Romo:  $15M/4  = 3, 3, 4, 5
  • Lopez:  $11.8M/3  = 3.5, 4, 4.3
I realize it is rather pointless to project out 5 years.  Who knows what will be, or who plays well/poorly?  What happens to our young prospects?  I just get an idea of what is about as realistic as any scenario, in my eyes.

If you want the PDF's of my Excel docs.  Here ya go, feel free geek out and second-guess any of this.

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